Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
